Finance-Based Pricing Advisor
Evaluate pricing changes (increases, tiers, add-ons, discounts) using ARPU, conversion, churn risk, NRR, and CAC payback math — before you ship the change.
Someone in leadership said "let's raise prices 20%" and the revenue math looks great — but nobody modeled the churn spike that wipes out the gains. Four-question financial lens turns pricing changes into defensible go/no-go calls with supporting math, sensitivity analysis, and a grandfathering strategy.
Who it's for: PMs evaluating pricing changes, RevOps leaders sizing monetization moves, founders debating price hikes, finance partners pressure-testing pricing memos, growth leads designing tier architecture
Example
"Should we raise prices 30% for all existing customers next quarter?" → ARPU lift +$75K MRR vs. churn-driven loss -$9.75K MRR (5%→8%) + grandfathering alternative + 'fix retention first' verdict with specific churn threshold to revisit
CLAUDE.md Template
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npx ccplaybooks add finance-based-pricing-advisor# Finance-Based Pricing Advisor
Evaluate the **financial impact** of pricing changes (price increases, new tiers, add-ons, discounts) using ARPU/ARPA analysis, conversion impact, churn risk, NRR effects, and CAC payback implications. Data-driven go/no-go decisions with supporting math and risk assessment.
**What this is:** Financial impact evaluation for pricing decisions you're already considering.
**What this is NOT:** Value-based pricing design, willingness-to-pay research, packaging architecture, competitive positioning.
## The Pricing Impact Framework
1. **Revenue Impact** — Direct revenue lift vs. loss from reduced conversion or churn → net revenue impact
2. **Conversion Impact** — Higher prices may reduce trial-to-paid; better packaging may improve it
3. **Churn Risk** — Grandfathering strategy, churn by segment, elasticityGet new playbooks like this one
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What This Does
Walks through 4 adaptive questions — change type, expected impact, current baseline, recommendation — and delivers one of 4 patterns: Implement Broadly, Test First (A/B), Modify Approach, or Don't Change. Every recommendation includes math: ARPU lift, churn-driven revenue loss, net MRR impact, CAC payback change.
Not value-based pricing design. A financial impact lens for pricing changes you're already considering.
Quick Start
mkdir -p ~/Documents/PricingAdvisor
mv ~/Downloads/CLAUDE.md ~/Documents/PricingAdvisor/
cd ~/Documents/PricingAdvisor
claude
Provide the proposed change, current pricing (ARPU, tiers, churn, conversion), and business context (MRR, CAC, NRR). Claude walks through 4 questions and delivers the recommendation with sensitivity analysis.
Pricing Change Types
- Direct monetization — Price increase, new premium tier, paid add-on, usage-based pricing
- Discount strategies — Annual prepay, volume, promotional
- Packaging changes — Bundling, unbundling, pricing metric shift (seats → usage)
Four Recommendation Patterns
| Pattern | Trigger | Output |
|---|---|---|
| Implement Broadly | >10% ARPU lift, <5% churn risk | Math + grandfathering plan + monitoring thresholds |
| Test First (A/B) | Uncertain impact, moderate risk, large base | Cohort design + duration + decision criteria |
| Modify Approach | Original has risk, better alternative | Smaller increase / grandfather-only / segment-based pricing |
| Don't Change | Net negative or marginal, high churn risk | Reject + what would change + retention-first alternative |
Tips & Best Practices
- Grandfather existing customers. Raise prices for new only — protects base from retaliatory churn.
- Model conservative + base + optimistic. Churn impact is always uncertain — don't plan around a point estimate.
- Calculate net MRR impact, not gross. +$75K MRR from price lift minus -$9.75K from accelerated churn is the number that matters.
- Factor CAC payback. Higher ARPU + lower conversion can make payback worse, not better.
- Communicate 30-60 days in advance. Surprise pricing changes drive churn more than the pricing itself.
Common Pitfalls
- Ignoring churn impact (raise 30%, model zero churn response)
- Applying changes to all customers without grandfathering
- A/B testing with 10 customers (no statistical power)
- Raising prices without corresponding value communication
- Copycat pricing based on what a competitor did
- Heavy annual discounts (>15%) that destroy LTV for cash flow
- Forgetting the expansion revenue alternative (land and expand)