Equity Research Thesis Tracker
Maintain and update investment theses for portfolio positions with scorecard tracking, catalyst calendars, and conviction monitoring.
Investment theses drift over time as new data arrives — without a structured tracker, it's easy to hold positions past their sell-by date or miss the moment when your original thesis breaks down.
Who it's for: portfolio managers, equity research analysts, buy-side analysts, hedge fund analysts, investment committee members
Example
"Update my thesis for AAPL with the latest earnings data" → Updated thesis scorecard showing each pillar's status (on track/behind/ahead), new data point logged with thesis impact assessment, and revised conviction level
New here? 3-minute setup guide → | Already set up? Copy the template below.
# Thesis Tracker
Maintain and update investment theses for portfolio positions and watchlist names. Track key data points, catalysts, and thesis milestones over time. Use when updating a thesis with new information, reviewing position rationale, or checking if a thesis is still intact.
## Workflow
### Step 1: Define or Load Thesis
If creating a new thesis:
- **Company**: Name and ticker
- **Position**: Long or Short
- **Thesis statement**: 1-2 sentence core thesis (e.g., "Long ACME — margin expansion from pricing power + operating leverage as mix shifts to software")
- **Key pillars**: 3-5 supporting arguments
- **Key risks**: 3-5 risks that would invalidate the thesis
- **Catalysts**: Upcoming events that could prove/disprove the thesis (earnings, product launches, regulatory decisions)
- **Target price / valuation**: What's it worth if the thesis plays out
- **Stop-loss trigger**: What would make you exit
If updating an existing thesis, ask the user for the new data point or development.
### Step 2: Update Log
For each new data point or development:
- **Date**: When this happened
- **Data point**: What changed (earnings beat, management departure, competitor move, etc.)
- **Thesis impact**: Does this strengthen, weaken, or neutralize a specific pillar?
- **Action**: No change / Increase position / Trim / Exit
- **Updated conviction**: High / Medium / Low
### Step 3: Thesis Scorecard
Maintain a running scorecard:
| Pillar | Original Expectation | Current Status | Trend |
|--------|---------------------|----------------|-------|
| Revenue growth >20% | On track | Q3 was 22% | Stable |
| Margin expansion | Behind | Margins flat YoY | Concerning |
| New product launch | Pending | Delayed to Q2 | Watch |
### Step 4: Catalyst Calendar
Track upcoming catalysts:
| Date | Event | Expected Impact | Notes |
|------|-------|-----------------|-------|
| | | | |
### Step 5: Output
Thesis summary suitable for:
- Morning meeting discussion
- Portfolio review
- Risk committee presentation
Format: Concise markdown or Word doc with the scorecard, recent updates, and current conviction level.
## Important Notes
- A thesis should be falsifiable — if nothing could disprove it, it's not a thesis
- Track disconfirming evidence as rigorously as confirming evidence
- Review theses at least quarterly, even when nothing dramatic has happened
- If the user manages multiple positions, offer to do a full portfolio thesis review
- Store thesis data in a structured format so it can be referenced across sessions
What This Does
Maintains structured investment theses for portfolio positions and watchlist names. Tracks key pillars, logs new data points with thesis impact assessments, maintains catalyst calendars, and monitors conviction levels over time. Designed for morning meetings, portfolio reviews, and risk committee presentations.
Quick Start
Step 1: Create a Project Folder
Create a folder for your thesis tracking workspace and place the downloaded template inside as CLAUDE.md.
Step 2: Download the Template
Click Download above, then move the file into your project folder as CLAUDE.md.
Step 3: Start Working
"Create a new thesis for NVDA — long on AI infrastructure spending"
"Update my AAPL thesis with Q3 earnings data"
"Is my short thesis on XYZ still intact?"
"Do a full portfolio thesis review"
"Add the FDA decision catalyst to my biotech thesis"
Thesis Components
- Thesis statement: 1-2 sentence core thesis
- Key pillars: 3-5 supporting arguments with status tracking
- Key risks: 3-5 invalidation triggers
- Catalyst calendar: Upcoming events that prove/disprove the thesis
- Update log: Chronological data points with impact assessment
- Conviction level: High / Medium / Low with trend
Best Practices
- A thesis should be falsifiable — if nothing could disprove it, it's not a thesis
- Track disconfirming evidence as rigorously as confirming evidence
- Review theses at least quarterly, even when nothing dramatic has happened
- Store thesis data in a structured format for cross-session reference